By Courtesy of the Propagation team
G3YLA JIM
G0KYA STEVE
G4BAO JOHN
Its all about the weather
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Jim Bacon G3YLA
NARC club member
and Nick Henwood
RSGB President.
Propogation News
15th November 2024
HF
3
The solar flux index took a downturn this week, ending up at 150. The visible solar disk is looking rather bare compared with a couple of weeks ago.
This is the lowest SFI value since May 2, 2024, but it is only a matter of time before we see another sunspot appear as we make our way through solar maximum.
The good news is that this means we have been pretty devoid of solar flares and coronal mass ejections, with only a few M-class flares occurring. Any CMEs were not Earth-directed and so the Kp index stayed low.
As a result, the bands are still playing ball. A quick look on 10 metres at 10.00hrs UTC on Thursday 14th showed the 4X6TU (Israel), OH2B (Finland) and LU4AA (Argentina) International Beacon Project beacons were romping in on 28.200MHz.
Going down to 15 metres it was even better, with ZL6B (New Zealand), VK6RBP (Australia) and JA2IGY (Japan) all audible on 21.150MHz.
Also, the proton flux from the Sun remains low, which bodes well for polar paths.
Next week the Space Weather Prediction Centre forecasts that the solar flux index will rise again, no doubt as new or returning sunspots appear, perhaps putting us into the low 200s.
From a geomagnetic perspective, unsettled conditions are forecast for Wednesday, November 20 when the Kp index could rise to four.
Looking further ahead, fingers crossed for the 23rd and 24th weekend when CQ Worldwide CW takes place!
VHF and up
It was more of the same on 50MHz last week, with what may be a mix of Es and F2-layer propagation producing morning openings in the afternoon to the Gulf States, Southeast Asia, and the Americas.
On the higher bands, with the high pressure just hanging on in its colder guise, next week looks distinctly on the wintry side for some areas.
The high pressure has, along with its predecessor, given us at least two weeks of Tropo conditions on the VHF bands. The expected change-over to low pressure takes place on Sunday and drives a colder northerly weather pattern down across the UK, even to southern areas. This means that the majority of next week is a good time to look for rain scatter.
Regarding meteor scatter, the peak of the Leonids occurs this Sunday 17th November with rates of 15-20 per hour.
Also, occasional peaks of the Kp index above four should tempt us to beam north for chance aurora openings. As usual, check the VHF beacons and clusters for signs of activity during the afternoon and evenings when the auroral oval is displaced southwards nearer to our part of the world.
It's a good week for EME operators, the Moon reaches peak declination on Monday morning, but path losses are rising as we passed perigee on Thursday the 14th. 144MHz sky noise is moderate, reaching 500 Kelvin on Sunday night.
G3YLA JIM
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G0KYA STEVE
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