Last week I said there were no coronal holes to threaten HF propagation. But while I was right at the time of writing, guess what appeared shortly after?

Coronal holes can appear at any time, which is why I recommend going to solarham.com for daily updates.

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This week another coronal hole has appeared and this one really does look like it could threaten Earth. This, coupled with coronal mass ejections, means this weekend could see the Kp index rise and MUFs fall.

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On a brighter note, the Kp index has been very low this past week, mostly below two, with the result that HF propagation has been very good. Top DX being worked includes RI1FJL on Franz Josef Land in the Arctic Circle, which has been loud on many bands, including up to and including 10 and 12 metres.

Other DX to be worked next week include V5/HB9BFM (Namibia), J38DX and J38LD (Grenada) and P29YY (Papua New Guinea).

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A quick check of the NCDXF beacon chain revealed very good propagation on 14MHz and 21MHz, including reception of the CS3B (Madeira), RR90 (Siberia), 4S7B (Sri Lanka), 4X6TU (Israel), and 4U1UN (New York) beacons.

So it looks like we are starting to leave the summer doldrums and entering better autumnal HF conditions.

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Next week NOAA predicts that the SFI will be around 120, falling to 90 as the week progresses. After the potential for geomagnetic disruption this weekend the forecast is good with a Kp of around two.