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G3YLA JIM

G0KYA STEVE

G4BAO JOHN
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Pictured :
Jim Bacon G3YLA
NARC club member
and Nick Henwood
RSGB President.

Propogation News
20th February 2026
HF

3
We had a week of relatively low solar flux indices, and mostly-settled geomagnetic conditions.
While the SFI fell to be in the range of 117-129, the Kp index was mostly in the twos and threes. That is, after the weekend’s geomagnetic disturbance, due to a large coronal hole that expelled a lot of solar plasma in a stream that moved past Earth at nearly 700 km/s.
As a result, HF conditions have been quite good with lots of DX being worked.
The KP5/NP3VI Desecheo Island DXpedition, near Puerto Rico, has been a struggle for many, due to its popularity and use of solar-powered batteries and low power. One quick hint, try FT8 on 40 metres around 7-7.30am. You get a greyline enhancement at sunrise, but for much of Europe the band is closing, which means there is little competition. Let us know how you get on.
Other DX this week includes 8R1WA, Guyana, an Italian team operating until February 27. Chuck will be active as VP2MCV on Montserrat and will be active in the ARRL DX CW contest and until the end of the month. Finally, a German team will be operating as J51A in Guinea-Bissau from now until mid-March.
Another large solar coronal hole will become Earth-facing from late Friday, so we may expect unsettled geomagnetic conditions, possibly from Sunday.
Next week, the Space Weather Prediction Centre forecasts a low SFI of 105 on the 21st, before rising again to potentially reach 165 by the end of the month. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are forecast for the 24th and 25th with an estimated Kp of five.
VHF and up

Friday 13th and Saturday 14th saw afternoon openings on 50MHz to TZ1CE in Mali to generate DX interest but, as expected it was stations much further South who benefitted from the best propagation, with just a few stations in Southern UK making QSOS on FT8.
The present spell of unsettled weather remains the main theme for the coming period up to the end of next week. The pattern is controlled by a strong Atlantic jet stream so ‘changeable’ is the watchword with periods of heavy rain alternating with brighter showery interludes and, of course, quite strong winds at times.
In terms of propagation, rain scatter is a clear favourite, although in one cloudy period in mild air around Tuesday of next week, some possible Tropo may show up for southern UK. The meteor scatter options are again subject to random activity since we are still some way off the next important shower, the Lyrids, in late April.
The auroral prospects have, at best, been gently simmering at low values of Kp index, mostly less than Kp=5. Stay tuned though because we may see an uptick around Tuesday of next week, so watch for signs of fluttery signals on the LF bands and then check for auroral tones on 10m and up through 6m to 2m. These events are always a bit of a long shot, but should be worth checking this time.
The sporadic-E season is still some way off, although a strong jet stream pattern is always a positive.
For EME, Moon declination is positive and rising, meaning longer Moon windows and higher peak elevation. Path loss continues to fall as we approach peridee on Tuesday night. 144 MHz Sky noise starts the week low rising to moderate towards the end.
G3YLA JIM


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