By Courtesy of the Propagation team
G3YLA JIM
G0KYA STEVE
G4BAO JOHN
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Jim Bacon G3YLA
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and Nick Henwood
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Propogation News
27th February 2026
HF
3
We have just had a period of zero sunspots – the first time since June 2022. But don’t worry, this may be a sign of things to come in the future, but this initial zero spots period was short-lived.
There are now signs of sunspots appearing over the Sun’s eastern limb with old region 4366, last seen on February 11th, making its return and now renamed active region 4378. This is helping to boost the solar flux index, which stood at 125 on Thursday 26th. That’s a long way off the usual SFI lows we experience at sunspot minimum when it can get as low as 66-70.
As we are now entering March, and with the hours of daylight increasing, we are seeing a change in HF propagation. The Spring equinox is a time of good North-South propagation, especially on the higher HF bands, although we may see 10 metres tailing off a little bit as we head towards summer. For the best overall DX HF propagation head to 21 MHz or higher where you may get maximum global coverage.
Propagation has been reasonable, but a high-speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole pushed the Kp index to four for long periods. This has not helped HF although its effects are not as bad as a Kp index of six or higher.
DXpeditions to be worked this week include Bouvet Island 3Y0K, Guinea Bissau J51A and the final days of Desecheo Island KP5/NP3VI, which is due to end around March 3. Lubo, OM5ZW and Laco, OM4WM will also be active from Thulusdhoo Island in the Maldives as 8Q7ZW from February 28 to March 12, 2026.
Next week, the SWPC predicts that the SFI will remain in the range 120-130.
The solar wind model predicts that a cloud of plasma may hit Earth on March 1 so watch for an increased Kp index on Sunday. Otherwise, the first half of the week may be quiet geomagnetically, although the Kp index is predicted to rise to four on the fifth and sixth of March.
VHF and up
The early part of last week saw brief 50MHz FT8 spots in southern UK of the J51A Dxpedition to Guinea Bissau. As with TZ1CE last week, stations much further South benefitted from the best propagation, and at the time of writing Clublog showed no UK stations in their log yet. They were an easy catch on FT8 on all the lower bands.
The current spell of very unsettled weather will just last into early next week, but thereafter it seems likely that high pressure will start to build over the country, possibly with another weak front after mid-week, but soon followed by another high before the end of the week. In terms of radio propagation, it suggests that although some further rain scatter is probable at first; as we head into next week, there is every chance of Tropo becoming a mode of choice.
It’s important to remember that not all highs are equal and although they all tend to produce a strong temperature inversion, they may not be good for Tropo if the air near the surface is too dry. Ideally, we need to see some misty low cloud or early morning fog trapped under the inversion for the better-quality lifts. This is because a change in moisture across the top of the inversion produces the biggest change to the refractive index.
Other modes to consider, though not too seriously, are aurora after the recent coronal hole stream, which you probably heard about in the previous section. The indication you are looking for is a high value of the Kp index, say Kp=5 or greater up to the maximum of Kp=9.
With meteor scatter, we are in the long gap in shower activity until the Lyrids in late April, so relying on random meteor activity is the best we can expect.
Lastly, the prospects for Sporadic-E are not necessarily zero, but unlikely to be too exciting in this part of the year.
The main summer season is normally considered to run from late April to mid-September. In the interim, the occasional burst of activity is possible, but probably limited to 10m or 6m.
For EME, Moon declination has started to fall again, going negative next Wednesday, meaning shortening Moon windows and lower peak elevation. Path losses are rising again after perigee. 144 MHz sky noise is low all week.
G3YLA JIM
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G0KYA STEVE
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