By Courtesy of the Propagation team
G3YLA JIM
G0KYA STEVE
G4BAO JOHN
Its all about the weather
Link : Windy.com
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Pictured :
Jim Bacon G3YLA
NARC club member
and Nick Henwood
RSGB President.
Propogation News
6th February 2026
HF
3
Last week was characterised by a high solar flux index, but a succession of X-class solar flares from active region 4366 on the Sun.
Luckily, none of these resulted in a coronal mass ejection (at least at the time of writing) so we got away lightly.
The SFI stood at 178 on Tuesday the 3rd of February with the result that 10 metres was humming. U.S. states logged include Oregon, Nevada, California, Washington and Idaho, all between 15:30hrs and 17:30hrs UTC.
As we always say, look for a high solar flux index and a low Kp index for
DX – in this case a Kp index of 1-2.33.
By comparison, the next day was a washout, possibly thanks to a Kp
index increase to 3.67, thanks to a coronal mass ejection (CME) that
passed Earth at 15:06hrs UTC.
Bad conditions continued on Thursday when the solar wind speed
increased to more than 500km/s, the Kp index increased to 5.33 and
MUFs across a 3,000km path struggled to exceed 20MHz.
Incidentally, February and March are good months for 10m paths to the
U.S. By April, paths start to drop away and start favouring South America,
so if you need U.S. states for your Worked All States award, now is the
right time!
In the meantime, do keep an eye on active region 4366 as it may still
have a sting in its tail. This monstrous sunspot group, 15 times the width
of Earth, was Earth-centric on Thursday the 5th, so its effects will
diminish by the time this report is being read out.
As always, we recommend solarham.com for daily updates on space
weather.
Next week, NOAA predicts that the solar flux index will be in the range
130-150, although the Kp index might be unsettled at times, with an
average Kp index of three. Friday the 13th is forecast to be particularly
unsettled with a Kp of five.
VHF and up
The markedly unsettled weather pattern continues to bring a mix of rain
and showers and very strong winds at times plus the threat of snowfall in
some eastern and northern areas. This probably means that Tropo will be
hard to find during the coming week, but leaves us with plenty of chances
for rain scatter for GHz operators.
In the solar-terrestrial domain, the disturbed Sun has once again brought
a sequence of flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which has
provided frequent auroral alerts as the Kp index has climbed to four or
more. Listen for fluttery signals on the LF bands and perhaps very
ghostly-sounding signals on HF and VHF, typically 10m to 2m.
Meteor scatter operators must rely upon random meteor activity, but over
the whole Earth this can amount to 25 million meteors or meteoroids per
day, so there is a every chance that even random activity could produce a
path for you if you have a quiet site.
The mix of meteor activity and a low Kp index can lead to out-of-season
Sporadic-E, given some jet stream weather activity, although this is
currently well south over the Mediterranean in its usual winter position, so
any Es may be a bit too far to the south to reach from the UK in the short
term.
This week, Moon declination is negative all week and falling until
Thursday. Moon window length and peak elevation follow suit. Path losses
are rising again as we reach apogee (the Moon’s furthest point from
Earth) on Tuesday the 10th. 144 MHz sky noise is low but rising to High
by next Thursday.
G3YLA JIM
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G0KYA STEVE
Communications and PR for hi-tech and aerospace companies
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