We have moved into the season of autumn changeability with alternating unsettled weather. Rain and possible rain scatter are possible on the GHz bands and the traditional Tropo that comes from areas of high pressure and temperature inversions. 

The bulk of the period up to the end of next week is firmly in the unsettled domain with some potentially active lows passing close to the UK with perhaps some very strong winds in northern areas;  so rain scatter is likely to be an option at times. There is a signal in the weather models that we could see a big high developing at the end of next week, with Tropo returning to many areas.

​

The meteor scatter prospects are slightly lifted by the Draconids, which peaked on Thursday October 8th, and then the slow climb to the Orionids later in the month on Wednesday October 21st, which are the debris from comet Halley and usually the better of the two showers.

We have recently been having the occasional peak in the Kp index to around 4 or 5, which is just enough to give us a reason to look out for aurora, although not really where we need it for a good radio aurora, but definitely a hint to check the Kp index.

​

The surprise out-of-season Es on Monday October 5th when the foEs reached just over 10MHz, was a reminder that guidelines about the span of the season are just that, and other externally forced events can and do happen. Not easy to give exact reasons for that event, but a sudden uptick in meteor input can play a regional role if other triggers like jet streams are also present. 

​

EME now, and Moon declination is negative and falling to minimum on Friday 16th, so Moon windows are shortening and peak Moon elevation is falling. Path losses are rising as we approach apogee also on the 16th. The Sun and Moon are close over the weekend of Saturday the 10th, so expect high sky noise, then moderate, becoming high again as the week progresses.