After a pretty stormy run up to Easter, from a geomagnetic disturbance point of view, the Sun has been pretty quiet.

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In fact, the Kp index has been below three all week. Unfortunately, the solar flux index has also declined, standing at 108 on Thursday the 9th. The only advantage has been a lack of solar flares – there have only been 12 minor C-class flares over the past three days compared with 29 C-class flares and six M-class flares on the fourth and fifth of April.

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We always look for a low Kp index over a higher SFI for better HF conditions.

So how does this all affect HF propagation? The MUF over a 3,000km path has been struggling to get up to 28MHz on most days. Leaving only 21 and 24MHz open after the initial post-dawn ionospheric build-up. This doesn’t mean 10-metres is dead, but it may be that the band is only open to DX and not open to Europe. This may change once the Sporadic-E season starts, but we are still a month away from that.

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DX being worked, according to the CDXC Slack group, includes 5W1SA Samoa on 17m FT8, F0/F6BCW French Polynesia on 12m CW and 3DA0TM Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) on 20m USB. T31TTT Kanton Island, Central Kiribati, has also been spotted on 20m and 30m FT8/FT4 – the DXpedition is focusing on FT modes, although they are also operating some CW.

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Next week, NOAA predicts that the SFI will start around 105, but will increase a little over the week to reach the low 120s. Geomagnetic conditions are forecast to be quiet, with a maximum Kp index of three once we get over this weekend’s predicted disruption, which has a forecast Kp index of five.

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Then we are in for a rough ride next weekend, with a predicted Kp index of six on April 19th and disrupted conditions for three days. This is likely due to the return of active region 4392, which produced a CME that hit the Earth and caused the Kp index to rise to seven on its last rotation.

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