By Courtesy of the Propagation team
G3YLA JIM
G0KYA STEVE
G4BAO JOHN
Its all about the weather
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Pictured :
Jim Bacon G3YLA
NARC club member
and Nick Henwood
RSGB President.
Propogation News
3rd July 2026
HF
3
Last week we warned you about some large sunspots about to turn into view. It turns out that regions 4478 and 4479 were even bigger than we thought! The result was that the SFI climbed into the low 200s, but we also had solar flares and CMEs to contend with.
As well as one X-class flare, the strongest, we also had 13 M-class flares as well. The X-class event inevitably led to a coronal mass ejection, which at the time of writing was due to hit Earth around July 3rd, potentially affecting the ionosphere this weekend.
Expect the Kp index to rise with a corresponding fall in the MUF, should the Bz swing South. Note that the solar wind speed has been at more than 400 km/s for a few days, but so far its North-facing Bz field has saved us from more HF disruption.
Daytime MUFs have been peaking at around 21-22MHz, but blanketing Sporadic E is often preventing signals from reaching the higher F2 layer.
DX to be worked this week includes TJ1GD/P (Mondoleh Island), FO/F6BCW (French Polynesia), JD1BQP (Ogasawara), OX/DL8JJ (Greenland), TY5FR (Benin), FP/KV1J (St Pierre & Miquelon), FS/F4EQE (Saint Martin), and RT9K (Arctic Legends IOTA DXpedition).
This weekend also features the Marconi Memorial HF Contest, the Original QRP Contest, the PODXS 070 Club 40m Firecracker Sprint and the FOC Old School Classic 1960s QSO Party, so plenty to get your teeth into.
Also, keep an eye open for stations taking part in next week’s World Radiosport Team Championship or WRTC, when 50 qualifying teams, comprising 100 operators, come to East Anglia from all over the world. The contest runs from 12:00 UTC on Saturday 11th July and ends on Sunday 12th July 11:59 UTC. Your contacts will be most welcome!
Next week, NOAA predicts that the SFI may decline to be in the range 140-175. The Kp index is forecast to be unsettled on July 8th and 9th, perhaps hitting four. Otherwise, it should be around two.
VHF and up
The bulk of the coming week will see high pressure centred to the southwest of the British Isles with a broad northwesterly across the UK. This will mean that Tropo will remain a feature, especially for southwestern areas up the Irish Sea and down across Biscay to Spain, the Azores and Canaries.
The presence of a weak frontal zone running southeast across the UK will provide some occasional patchy rain, but not particularly good for heavy rain, which is best for rain scatter.
Not expecting too strong a response for aurora either, but monitor for Kp>5 if that’s your interest. There are no significant meteor showers at the moment so random activity favouring the early dawn period will probably be the best chance for QSOs.
Sporadic-E has been outstanding recently, especially on digital modes, with long openings up to 144 MHz. We are still very much in the main part of the season. The distribution of the jet streams during the coming week still appears to favour Scandinavia and the Baltic paths for Es, but with possible extensions into the Balkans as the jet stream digs south.
The coming period will continue to provide Es and Tropo occurring on the same day, but due to different causes should be separable by the direction of the opening. Tropo will usually be longer duration events, whereas Es is more fleeting. Remember on a busy day, not all VHF DX will be Es and you could be dealing with a hybrid Es / Tropo day.
EME now and declination is rising, going positive on Monday 6th so Moon window lengths increase. Path losses are falling, but perigee is still over a week away on July 13th, its closest point to Earth. 144 MHz Sky noise is low all week.
G3YLA JIM
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G0KYA STEVE
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